During end of March i share about S&P 500 chart and predict a consolidation and the market went off as what i predicted….undergo consolidation but in a rough movement.
Instead of ranging at area of 2335 to 2355…it actually make a fake breakout to higher end 2380 before back to ranging area again.
As we can see on the chart below,
Currently market still undergo consolidation but we can see clearly that after few rejection on 50MA… current market demand unable to cope with market supply due to geopolitical worries in Syria and North Korea linger along, with upcoming French polls that hold implications for the future of the Eurozone.
Eventually Equities market has to fall further and find its next demand, just a matter of when. As we all know, the more time support area is tested, the higher chance support won’t able to hold. Key area to watch is 2325 to 2335 area, if price able to breach, we expect a momentum to test 2300 round number before market find it support and do another round of consolidation. This is scenario 1.
Scenario 2 is that market do a fake breach of 2300 area and do a spring trapped on 2280 to 2300 area, pull back to higher area (lower high) before it continue its downward trend to lower low.
Scenario 3 is, market undergo strong downtrend where it breach 2300 then 2280 and all the way challenge 200MA, 2240 area.
Of course, there is scenario 4 where after consolidation, market continue its rally and challenge a new high. Unfortunately, with safe haven at all time high which indicate strong interest and strong buying from big players, equities has a higher probability for selling setup than buying setup.
Till then, stay safe in investing and trading!