A Double-Edged Sword For Equity Investors: Currency Hedging

By James Picerno

Interesting insight by an author, James Picerno.

The US dollar has had a rough ride so far in 2017. The Federal Reserve’s Trade Weighted US Dollar Index that tracks the major currencies has tumbled roughly 8% year to date through last week’s close. The greenback’s slide, however, has delivered a substantial return premium for US investors who own foreign assets in funds sans currency hedging.

Continue reading

When will Stock Market Crash? This Guy Predict One Possible Scenario…

Full credit to: Charles Hugh Smith

The one thing we can know with certainty is it won’t be easy to profit from the crash.

After 8+ years of phenomenal gains, it’s pretty obvious the global stock market rally is overdue for a credit-cycle downturn, and many research services of Wall Street heavyweights are sounding the alarm about the auto industry’s slump, the slowing of new credit and other fundamental indicators that a recession is becoming more likely.

Few have taken the risk of projecting a date for the crash, this gent being a gutsy outlier: Hedge Fund CIO Sets The Day When The Next Crash Begins.

Next February is a good guess, as recessions and market downturns tend to lag the credit market by about 9 months.

Continue reading

Market insiders selling at the top to retail investors. Is the crash near?

Optimism about U.S. President Donald Trump’s pro-growth economic agenda has lifted U.S. equities to record high territory, with the Dow marking its ninth straight record close on Wednesday.

Overall, U.S. stocks are now up almost 15% since the election, boosted by Trump’s promises of tax reform, infrastructure spending and bank regulation.

The tremendously high valuations has led to some hedge funds to bet that the rally is coming to an end, as enthusiasm over Trump’s policies is overdone and political risk in Europe isn’t priced in.

The level of shorts – a bet that a stock will fall – taken out against the Dow Jones Industrial Average jumped 13% in the 30 days to February 20.

In addition, the first seven weeks of this year have seen insiders selling 5.5-times as many shares as they bought, meaning that insiders are dumping shares at an aggressive pace.

This comes at a time when retail investors are jumping into the market looking to make some quick gains.

Trump has been credited with being a major catalyst behind Wall Street’s impressive rally since election day, with some dubbing it the “Trump Jump”, as investors welcomed his promises of tax reform, infrastructure spending and deregulation.

However, recent gains have led to speculation of a near-term reversal with some fund manager likening the current stock market euphoria to the dotcom bubble, which reached a peak on the last day of 1999 and then burst dramatically.

The question remains, who or what will be the cause of the reversal.


Credit to: Investing.com